http://pkrealtor.com/blog/categoryname_price-forecasts/sort_entrydatetime-desc/  Today’s headlines and news stories about home prices are confusing and make it tough to know what’s really happening. Some say home prices are heading for a correction, but what do the facts say? Well, it helps to start by looking at what a correction means.Here’s what Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at Realtor.com, says: “In stock market terms, a correction is generally referred to as a 10 to 20% drop in prices . . . We don't have the same established definitions in the housing market.”In the context of today’s housing market, it doesn’t mean home prices are going to fall dramatically. It only means prices, which have been increasing rapidly over the last couple years, are normalizing a bit. In other words, they’re now growing at a slower pace. Prices vary a lot by local market, but rest assured, a big drop off isn’t what’s happening at a national level.The Real Estate Market Is NormalizingFrom 2020 to 2022, home prices skyrocketed. That rapid increase was due to high demand, low interest rates, and a shortage of homes for sale. But, that kind of aggressive growth couldn’t continue forever.Today, price growth has started to slow down, which is a sign the market is beginning to normalize. The most recent data from Case-Shiller shows that after being basically flat for a couple of months last year, prices are going up at a national level – just not as quickly as before (see graph below):The big takeaway? So far this year, there’s been a much healthier pace of price growth compared to the pandemic.Of course, that’s what’s happening now, but you may be wondering what’s next for prices. Marco Santarelli, the Founder of Norada Real Estate Investments, says:“Expert forecasts lean towards a moderation in home price growth over the next five years. This translates to a slower and more sustainable pace of appreciation compared to the breakneck speed witnessed in recent years, rather than a freefall in prices.”It’s all about supply and demand. Increasing inventory plus limited buyer demand, due to relatively high mortgage rates, will continue to ease some of the upward pressure on prices. What This Means for You If you’re thinking about buying a home, slowing price growth is welcome news. Skyrocketing home prices during the pandemic left many would-be homebuyers feeling priced-out. While it’s still a good thing to know the value of the home you buy will likely continue to go up once you own it, slowing price gains are making things feel more manageable. Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American, says:“While housing affordability is low for potential first-time home buyers, slowing price appreciation and lower mortgage rates could help — so the dream of homeownership isn't boarded up just yet.”Bottom LineAt the national level, home prices are not going down. And most experts forecast they’ll continue growing moderately moving forward. But prices vary a lot by local market. That’s where a trusted real estate agent comes into play. If you have questions about what’s happening with prices in our area, reach out. http://pkrealtor.com/blog/702/are-home-prices-going-to-come-down?/ Mon, 29 Jul 2024 09:41:52 -0500 Are you thinking about making a move? If so, all the speculation that home prices would crash this year may have you feeling a bit on edge about your decision. Let the data and the experts reassure you. Prices aren’t in a downward spiral and will actually finish the year strong.Even though you may have heard talk that prices would drop 5, 10, or even 20% this year, that hasn’t happened. The big reason why is the supply of homes for sale is too low. There are just more buyers looking to buy than homes available, and that’s kept prices from falling.To prove this year wasn’t a bust for home prices, let’s look at the latest 2023 forecast from a number of experts.Most Experts Project Home Prices Will Net Positive this YearThe general consensus from industry experts is that home price appreciation will actually be positive for 2023. The graph below shows the latest 2023 year-end forecasts from six different organizations:As you can see, all but one project nationally prices will net positive this year. That’s significant because it shows the majority are optimistic about home price growth.If you’re still worried about the one red bar that shows an overall price drop for the year, think about this. The projection from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) is for only a slight decline. It’s not the big crash all the headlines called for. Plus, if you average all six forecasts together, the expectation is that prices will net somewhere around 3.3% positive growth for the year.If these 6 organizations aren’t enough to convince you that prices won’t come tumbling down, here’s something else to consider. One of the six forecasts represented in the graph is the Home Price Expectation Survey (HPES) from Pulsenomics. It combines survey results from over 100 economists, investment strategists, and housing market analysts. The HPES found that the average from all 100 of those experts is 3.3% price growth for the year.If you look back at the graph above, you’ll notice the blue average for the forecasts in this graph is also 3.3%. While individual forecasts may vary, both the HPES survey and the average of these forecasts provide the same projection. And 3.3% appreciation is a completely different story than prices falling.Bottom LineIf you’re worried about home prices falling this year, let the experts reassure you. Based on the average of the latest forecasts, home prices will actually show positive growth this year. If you have questions about what’s happening with home prices in our local area, let’s connect. http://pkrealtor.com/blog/483/the-latest-expert-forecasts-for-home-prices-in-2023/ Wed, 11 Oct 2023 12:56:24 -0500